Around 45% of fish stocks will change their migratory routes due to climate change by the year 2100. This could trigger an international conflict because, according to the study from the University of British Columbia (UBC), 81% of exclusive economic zones (EEZs) will see, at least, one change in stocks – should there be no changes.
The investigation analyzed the variation of more than 9,000 fish stocks, which account for 80% of catches in the EEZs. By 2030, this migratory change will already be noticeable in 23% of the stocks.
“This is not only a matter of stocks that are leaving or arriving at new EEZs, but of stocks that are shared between countries, completely changing their dynamics,” explains the study’s lead author, Juliano Palacios-Abrantes. “We will see even more dramatic changes by 2030, given current emission rates. Many of the fishing-management agreements made to regulate shared stocks were established decades ago, with rules that apply to a global situation that is not the same today,” warns the specialist.
Therefore, scientists argue that countries must unite and work together to avoid potential conflicts, in order to keep the industry sustainable and profitable, benefiting all parties. Mitigating the effects of climate change, establishing new catch-quota agreements, or negotiating permission for fishing fleets to fish in neighboring waters are some of the recommendations given in the publication.
