A multinational study led by researchers from the United Kingdom and France warns that the impacts on human health associated with plastic production emissions could more than double between 2016 and 2040 if the current global production model remains unchanged.
The investigation, published in the scientific journal The Lancet Planetary Health, is based on simulation models that analyzed different future scenarios of plastic consumption and waste management worldwide. The results indicate that, in a “business-as-usual” scenario in which plastic production continues to rise without significant structural changes, health damages could grow markedly and are unlikely to peak before the end of the century, possibly only after 2100.
The researchers focused exclusively on emissions associated with plastic production, including greenhouse gases, air pollutant particles, and toxic chemicals released during industrial processes. The study did not assess health impacts arising from the use of plastics, nor the effects of microplastics, nanoplastics, or many of the chemicals present in plastic products, due to lack of data and limited transparency about their composition.
According to the authors, although plastic pollution and emissions across their life cycle are increasingly recognized as a public health problem, the true magnitude of these impacts is only now beginning to be quantified systematically.
Modeling compared several scenarios between 2016 and 2040 and concluded that isolated improvements in waste collection and recycling would have a limited effect on reducing health impacts. In contrast, the greatest reductions would occur when reducing plastic production is combined with better collection and recycling systems, as well as with the substitution or reuse of materials.
The authors emphasize that the study has limitations inherent in the use of models and available data, including significant gaps in the chemical composition of plastics and their substitutes, as well as not considering potential benefits of using plastics in certain contexts.
Nevertheless, the researchers argue that, to effectively reduce the emissions associated with plastics and their health impacts, policymakers will need to implement stricter regulation and a substantial reduction in the production of new plastics, especially for uses deemed non-essential.
